Data current as of April 2026. Mortgage rate forecasts change frequently — always verify with current bank rate sheets and RBNZ Monetary Policy Statements at rbnz.govt.nz.
As of April 2026, NZ mortgage rates have fallen substantially from their 2023 peaks following the RBNZ’s easing cycle that began in August 2024. One-year fixed rates sit in the mid-5% range; the OCR is around 3.25%–3.75%. Whether rates fall further — and by how much — depends on inflation, global conditions, and the pace of economic recovery. This page summarises the current rate environment and leading forecasts.
As of April 2026, NZ 1–2 year fixed mortgage rates are in the mid-5% range, having fallen from 2023 peaks following the RBNZ's easing cycle. Most bank economists expect modest further declines toward 4.8%–5.3% by end-2026 as the OCR approaches its neutral level of approximately 3.0%–3.25%.
Where Rates Are Now (April 2026)
| Rate type | Approximate range |
|---|---|
| OCR | 3.25%–3.75% |
| 6 months fixed | 5.4%–5.8% |
| 1 year fixed | 5.2%–5.6% |
| 2 year fixed | 5.1%–5.5% |
| 3 year fixed | 5.0%–5.5% |
| 5 year fixed | 5.2%–5.7% |
| Floating | 6.5%–7.0% |
Rates vary by lender and borrower profile. The ranges above reflect major bank offerings for standard owner-occupier borrowers. Non-bank lenders and specialist lenders typically price higher.
For current rates from individual banks, see Current NZ Mortgage Rates.
What Drives the Forecast
NZ mortgage rate expectations are driven by three main factors:
1. RBNZ OCR trajectory The OCR drives floating rates directly and signals the economic direction that influences wholesale swap rates. The RBNZ’s own forward rate track — published in each Monetary Policy Statement — is the most watched indicator.
2. Wholesale swap rates Fixed mortgage rates are priced off NZ swap rates, which reflect the market’s collective expectation of where the OCR will be over the fixed term. A 2-year fixed rate is essentially priced off the 2-year swap rate plus a bank margin.
3. Global rates and the US Fed Because NZ banks fund mortgages partly in global wholesale markets, US Treasury yields and the Federal Reserve’s rate path influence NZ swap rates — particularly for longer-term fixed rates. See How the US Fed Affects NZ Mortgage Rates.
RBNZ Easing Cycle — Where It Stands
The RBNZ began cutting the OCR in August 2024 from its peak of 5.50%. By April 2026, the OCR has been reduced to approximately 3.25%–3.75%.
Key factors the RBNZ is weighing:
Inflation — CPI has returned to within (or near) the 1%–3% target band. The risk of re-acceleration keeps the RBNZ cautious about cutting too far too fast.
Economic growth — NZ GDP growth has been weak through 2024–2025. A soft labour market reduces inflation pressure and supports further cuts.
Global risks — US tariff policy, global supply chains, and commodity prices add uncertainty to the inflation outlook. If global inflation re-accelerates, the RBNZ’s room to cut further narrows.
Housing market — House prices have begun recovering from 2023–2024 lows. A sharp house price rebound could prompt the RBNZ to pause its cutting cycle to avoid reigniting asset inflation.
Current Market Forecasts (As of April 2026)
Major NZ bank economists and independent forecasters as of April 2026 broadly expect:
| Forecast | Central scenario |
|---|---|
| OCR end-2026 | 3.00%–3.50% |
| OCR end-2027 | 3.00%–3.25% (near neutral) |
| 1-year fixed rate (end 2026) | 4.8%–5.3% |
| 2-year fixed rate (end 2026) | 4.9%–5.3% |
The RBNZ’s estimate of the neutral OCR (the rate that neither stimulates nor restricts the economy) is approximately 2.75%–3.25%. Current expectations suggest the OCR is approaching neutral — meaning significant further cuts are not widely anticipated unless economic conditions deteriorate.
This points to a broadly stable to modestly lower rate environment through 2026–2027. Large further cuts (e.g., returning to sub-3% fixed rates seen in 2020–2021) are not the base-case scenario.
Upside and Downside Scenarios
If rates fall further than expected:
- Economic data weakens sharply (rising unemployment, GDP contraction)
- Global disinflation continues; oil prices fall
- RBNZ cuts more aggressively toward 2.50%–3.00%
- Fixed rates could fall toward 4.5%–5.0% range
- Implication for borrowers: fix shorter terms now; rates available when you refix could be lower
If rates rise or stay higher than expected:
- Global inflation re-accelerates (tariffs, supply chain disruption)
- NZ housing market rebounds sharply, prompting RBNZ caution
- US Fed keeps rates elevated, pushing NZ swap rates higher
- Fixed rates stay in the 5.5%–6.5% range
- Implication for borrowers: lock in current rates for longer terms
What This Means for Your Mortgage Decision
Currently on a floating rate
Floating rates (~6.5%–7.0%) remain significantly above fixed rates. Unless you’re expecting to sell or refinance very soon, moving to a 1–2 year fixed term likely saves money immediately.
Refixing in the next 3–6 months
The difference between 1-year and 2-year fixed rates is currently small. If you believe rates will continue to fall, fixing 1 year and then refixing at a (potentially lower) rate in 12 months makes sense. If you prefer certainty, 2 years locks in a known rate.
Considering a 5-year fixed rate
The market currently prices 5-year rates at a similar level to or above 2-year rates — an unusual flat or inverted yield curve. Locking 5 years at 5.5%+ when 2-year rates may fall below 5.0% in 12–18 months is a risk. Most borrowers should avoid long fixes in this environment unless certainty of payment is the overriding priority.
See Fixed vs Floating Mortgage NZ and When to Fix Your Mortgage NZ for a full decision framework.
Refixing — What to Do When Your Term Expires
If you’re approaching the end of a fixed term (set during 2023–2024 when rates were much higher), you’re likely refixing into a materially lower rate environment. See Refixing Your Mortgage NZ for what to do.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will NZ mortgage rates drop further in 2026?
Most NZ bank forecasters expect modest further falls in fixed rates through 2026, potentially reaching 4.8%–5.3% for 1–2 year terms by year end. Significant further cuts are not consensus — the OCR is approaching neutral and the risk of re-inflation limits how aggressively the RBNZ can ease.
What is the RBNZ OCR forecast for end-2026?
As of April 2026, most forecasters expect the OCR to settle in the 3.00%–3.50% range by end-2026 — close to the RBNZ’s estimated neutral rate of 2.75%–3.25%.
Should I fix for 1 year or 2 years given current NZ rates?
If you expect rates to continue falling, fixing 1 year lets you refix at potentially lower rates in 12 months. If you prefer certainty, 2 years locks in a known rate with minimal premium over 1 year. At current market pricing, the spread between 1-year and 2-year fixed rates is small — the choice is primarily about your rate view and cashflow preference.
Why are 5-year fixed rates similar to or above 2-year rates in NZ?
NZ is experiencing a flat or slightly inverted yield curve — longer-term rates are priced similarly to or above short-term rates. This reflects market expectations that rates will remain moderate long-term, not rise sharply. Locking in a 5-year rate at 5.5%+ when 2-year rates may fall toward 4.5%–5.0% carries meaningful opportunity cost.
Where can I find official RBNZ interest rate forecasts?
The RBNZ publishes its OCR forecast path in quarterly Monetary Policy Statements (MPS), available at rbnz.govt.nz. These include the RBNZ’s central projection for the OCR over the next 2–3 years. Note this is the RBNZ’s own forecast, not a commitment — actual outcomes will differ.