Rates and forecasts change often. Check each bank’s own rate page for current mortgage rates, and the RBNZ’s Monetary Policy Statements at rbnz.govt.nz for its latest OCR decision and projection.
The RBNZ cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) from 5.50% in mid-2024 to 2.25% by November 2025, then raised it to 2.50% on 8 July 2026 and 2.75% on 2 September 2026. This page explains what drives mortgage rates and what to look at when thinking about where they might go. It does not give a forecast of its own.
The OCR moves floating mortgage rates directly, while fixed rates follow wholesale swap rates, which reflect where markets expect the OCR to go. The OCR was cut from 5.50% in mid-2024 to 2.25% by November 2025 and was raised to 2.75% on 2 September 2026. Forecasts come from the RBNZ and bank economists and change with each data release.
Where the OCR Is
| Date | OCR |
|---|---|
| 10 July 2024 | 5.50% |
| 26 November 2025 | 2.25% |
| 8 July 2026 | 2.50% |
| 2 September 2026 | 2.75% |
Source: the RBNZ’s timeline of OCR decisions. For current mortgage rates from individual banks, see Current NZ Mortgage Rates.
What Drives the Forecast
NZ mortgage rate expectations are driven by three main factors:
1. RBNZ OCR trajectory The OCR drives floating rates directly and signals the economic direction that influences wholesale swap rates. The RBNZ’s own forward rate track, published in each Monetary Policy Statement, is the most watched indicator.
2. Wholesale swap rates Fixed mortgage rates are priced off NZ swap rates, which reflect the market’s collective expectation of where the OCR will be over the fixed term. A 2-year fixed rate is essentially priced off the 2-year swap rate plus a bank margin.
3. Global rates and the US Fed Because NZ banks fund mortgages partly in global wholesale markets, US Treasury yields and the Federal Reserve’s rate path influence NZ swap rates, particularly for longer-term fixed rates. See How the US Fed Affects NZ Mortgage Rates.
What the RBNZ Weighs
When it sets the OCR, the RBNZ looks at inflation, economic growth and the labour market, global conditions such as trade policy and commodity prices, and the housing market. Each of these can push the OCR, and therefore mortgage rates, up or down.
Upside and Downside Scenarios
If rates fall further than expected:
- Economic data weakens sharply (rising unemployment, GDP contraction)
- Global disinflation continues; oil prices fall
- The RBNZ cuts the OCR again
- Implication for borrowers: rates available when you refix could be lower
If rates rise or stay higher than expected:
- Global inflation re-accelerates (tariffs, supply chain disruption)
- The NZ housing market rebounds sharply, prompting RBNZ caution
- The US Fed keeps rates elevated, pushing NZ swap rates higher
- Implication for borrowers: rates available when you refix could be higher
What This Means for Your Mortgage Decision
Whether to float or fix, and for how long, depends on your cashflow, your tolerance for payment changes and your view on rates. Banks’ floating rates sit above their fixed rates at some times and not others, so compare the bank’s current floating and fixed rates before deciding.
See Fixed vs Floating Mortgage NZ and When to Fix Your Mortgage NZ for a full decision framework.
Refixing: What to Do When Your Term Expires
If you’re approaching the end of a fixed term, see Refixing Your Mortgage NZ for what to do.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will NZ mortgage rates drop further in 2026?
No one can say for certain. Fixed rates follow wholesale swap rates, which move with market expectations of the OCR, and the OCR was raised to 2.75% on 2 September 2026 after reaching 2.25% in November 2025. For forecasts, see the RBNZ’s Monetary Policy Statements and the published forecasts of the banks.
What is the RBNZ OCR forecast for end-2026?
The RBNZ publishes its own OCR projection in each Monetary Policy Statement at rbnz.govt.nz. This page does not state a forecast.
Where can I find official RBNZ interest rate forecasts?
The RBNZ publishes its OCR forecast path in its quarterly Monetary Policy Statements (MPS), available at rbnz.govt.nz. Note this is the RBNZ’s own forecast, not a commitment, so actual outcomes will differ.